India highly vulnerable to crude supply shocks amid shipping disruptions, say analysts

India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, could be among the nations most vulnerable to crude supply shocks if the conflict in the Middle East leads to prolonged shipping disruptions.

While India and China are both major buyers of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz, India – the planet’s most populous nation – is in a particularly precarious position because it possesses less oil storage than its neighbor, Reuters reported.

India’s “commercial crude stocks are around 100 million barrels,” according to Sumit Retolia, an analyst at energy consulting firm Kpler.

“With imports via the Strait of Hormuz averaging roughly 2.5 million barrels per day… these combined reserves could theoretically cover around 40–45 days of imports in a crude disruption scenario,” he said in a note on Monday.

India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said it is “continuously monitoring the evolving situation” in a statement on X on Monday.

“All steps will be taken in order to ensure availability and affordability of major petroleum products in the country,” the ministry added.

In February, Kpler said India appeared to be ramping up Middle East supplies, as New Delhi reduced their intake of Russian crude under pressure from Washington.

But the disruption in the Middle East could now make India seek oil from elsewhere, analysts say.

India would “likely ramp up purchases of Russian crude if alternative supplies cannot be secured in time” Kpler said.

“Such a move may not draw strong criticism from President Trump, as it would help temper a broader oil price rally,” it added.